Crypto-based Prediction Market Unfazed by Assassination Attempt

Nearly $1 billion has been staked on the upcoming U.S. election at the crypto-based prediction market Polymarket. Despite a second assassination attempt on former president Donald Trump, his odds on the platform have barely moved, suggesting bettors view the incident as a non-issue.

Polymarket Odds Defy Mainstream Narrative

While the news of the assassination attempt made headlines, Polymarket's election odds tell a different story. Trump's odds have actually decreased slightly since the incident, with Democratic nominee Kamala Harris leading 50-49 as of Monday morning. This diverges from the narrative pushed by mainstream outlets like The Economist, which initially suggested the attempt would "shake up the election".

Swing State Odds and House/Senate Control

Polymarket bettors are also tracking the odds in key swing states, with Republicans leading in Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania, while Democrats lead in Michigan and Wisconsin. The platform also has contracts on which party will control the House and Senate after the election.

Regulatory Challenges for U.S. Prediction Markets

Meanwhile, the U.S.-regulated prediction market Kalshi has had to freeze its election-related contracts pending a court decision, highlighting the regulatory hurdles faced by such platforms in the country. This contrasts with the open nature of Polymarket, which relies on the Polygon blockchain and allows international traders to participate.

Source: https://www.coindesk.com/news-analysis/2024/09/16/second-assassination-attempt-barely-moves-trumps-polymarket-odds/

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